The Pinnacle Oracle converts odds from the world's sharpest bookmaker into vig-adjusted probabilities. Pinnacle operates with the lowest margins in the industry (~2% vig) and accepts professional bettors — their lines are considered the most accurate publicly available proxy for true match outcomes. The displayed percentages remove the vig markup and normalize to 100%.
Spreads (handicaps) equalize the strength differential between teams — in BVB vs Bayern, BVB +0.75 means Dortmund starts with a three-quarter goal advantage. Totals (over/under) predict the total number of goals. Both markets offer alternative trading angles beyond the simple 1X2 outcome.
Value Signals are derived from delta analysis between the Pinnacle Oracle and prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi). When Pinnacle shows 62% probability but Polymarket trades at only 55¢, there is a delta of +7 percentage points — a potential mispricing signal. Thresholds: below 3pp no signal, 3-5pp Watch, 5-10pp Trade, above 10pp Strong Signal, and arbitrage opportunities when deltas diverge across platforms.
Season markets move more slowly than match bets and therefore offer more persistent mispricings. For BVB the relevant markets: championship, Champions League qualification (Top 4), Europa League place (5-7), and manager sacking. Deltas between Pinnacle and Polymarket are often larger here than in individual matches because less algorithmic trading occurs.
| Market | Oracle | Polymarket | Delta | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 3% | 2¢ | ~0pp | — |
| CL Qualification (Top 4) | 42% | 38¢ | +4pp | 👁️ Watch |
| Europa League (5-7) | 35% | — | — | No Market |
| Relegation | 0.5% | — | — | — |
The Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal position size for a bet with positive expected value. With an edge of 7pp (Oracle 62% vs Market 55¢) and payout odds of 1.82, Full Kelly recommends ~8.5% of bankroll. In practice, professional traders use Fractional Kelly (typically ¼ to ½) to reduce variance — the theoretically optimal amount is too aggressive for most portfolios.
All upcoming competitive matches for Borussia Dortmund with Oracle probabilities. Data is automatically updated from the Odds API via Pinnacle. Bundesliga and Champions League are tracked separately.
Pinnacle is the only bookmaker worldwide that does not limit professional bettors. Sein Geschäftsmodell basiert auf Volumen statt Marge. Die resultierenden Linien reflektieren den Konsens des gesamten Marktes — inklusive Syndicates, quantitativer Modelle und Insider-Informationen. Akademische Forschung (Franck et al., 2010; Štrumbelj, 2014) bestätigt Pinnacle-Schlusskurse als effizientesten öffentlichen Predictor für Fußball-Ergebnisse.
Pinnacles Rohquoten summieren sich auf ~102% (der Vig). Wir normalisieren proportional: jede implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit wird durch die Summe aller impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeiten geteilt. Bei einem 3-Wege-Markt (1X2) mit Rohsumme 102.5%: P_bereinigt = P_roh / 1.025
Delta = Oracle% − Marktpreis¢. Positives Delta bedeutet: der Prediction Market unterbewertet das Ergebnis relativ zum Pinnacle-Konsens. Negatives Delta: Überbewertung. Ab 5pp Delta generiert das System ein Trade Signal mit Kelly-Sizing.
Pinnacle: via The Odds API (Echtzeit-Feed, ~2min Latenz)
Polymarket: Öffentliche API, CLOB-basiert, Echtzeit
Kalshi: CFTC-reguliert, REST API, Echtzeit
Alle Daten werden über einen Cloudflare Worker aggregiert und gecacht (TTL: 5 Minuten).
The Portfolio Manager tracks all open and closed prediction market positions across all BVB markets — match bets, season markets, spreads and totals. Automatic P&L calculation, exposure analysis and risk control via integrated Fractional Kelly limits.
| Markt | Side | Entry | Current | Size | P&L | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BVB vs Bayern BL Spieltag 24 |
BVB YES | 18¢ | 22¢ | €250 | +€55 | 👁️ Hold |
| BVB CL-Quali Season · Top 4 |
YES | 34¢ | 38¢ | €500 | +€59 | ⚡ +4pp |
| Atalanta vs BVB CL · Di 25.02. |
BVB NO | 72¢ | 71¢ | €150 | +€2 | Θ Decay |
| BVB Meister Season · Titel |
NO | 96¢ | 98¢ | €1000 | +€21 | Θ Sell |
Prediction Widgets can be embedded in any editorial article, football site, or financial portal. The widgets load real-time data from the Akte Bundesliga Odds Worker and are available in three formats: Oracle Quote (inline embed for articles), Match Card (sidebar/preview), and Dashboard (full-width with all data). The widgets work across all 22 Akte Bundesliga sites and can be licensed for third-party sites.
The Akte Bundesliga Prediction Network offers three access levels — from free Oracle base data through algorithmic trading signals to the full portfolio management system. Billing is handled via Stripe through closelook.net — the existing payment infrastructure of the Closelook@C+ ecosystem.