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Borussia Dortmund

Prediction Intelligence
Borussia Dortmund

Live data for professional portfolio management, trading and predictions.

Position
2.
Points
64
Goal diff
+31
Next match
Hoffenheim vs BVB
Akte BVB — Club-Dossier Borussia Dortmund
Intelligence
Deutsch
At a glance

BVB sit 2th after matchday 29 with 64 points (19W 7D 3L, goal diff +31). Last 5 form: WWWWL (12/15 pts). Next opponent: Hoffenheim (6th).

Bundesliga Table

Bundesliga table matchday 29
# Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern 29 24 4 1 105 27 +78 76
2 BVB 29 19 7 3 60 29 +31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 +22 56
4 Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 +20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 +20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 +14 51
7 Eintracht 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 HSV 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 Koeln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 Gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St. Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Top Scorers

Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 25646

  1. 1
    Harry Kane
    Harry Kane
    Bayern · 32
    31 Goals
  2. 2
    Deniz Undav
    Deniz Undav
    Stuttgart · 29
    18 Goals
  3. 3
    Luis Díaz
    Luis Díaz
    Bayern · 29
    15 Goals
  4. 4
    Serhou Guirassy
    Serhou Guirassy
    BVB · 30
    13 Goals
  5. 5
    Michael Olise
    Michael Olise
    Bayern · 24
    12 Goals
# Player Club Goals
6 Christoph Baumgartner Leipzig 12
7 Yan Diomande Leipzig 11
8 Said El Mala Koeln 11
9 Haris Tabakovic Gladbach 11
10 Andrej Kramaric Hoffenheim 10

Pinnacle Oracle

Hoffenheim BVB
Home 2.60
Draw 4.01
Away 2.50
Source: Pinnacle Updated:
Hoffenheim BVB
-- Days
-- Hrs
-- Min
Kickoff
Venue
Competition
Bundesliga

Form & Momentum

BVB — Form & Home/Away

Last 5
WWWWL
Home
35 Pts
Record: 11-2-2 Goals: 33:14
Away
29 Pts
Record: 8-5-1 Goals: 27:15

Last result: Loss. Last 5 form: W-W-W-W-L.

The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).

Assists & Card Ranking

Bundesliga Top Assists

  1. 1
    Michael Olise
    Michael Olise
    Bayern · 24
    18 Assists
  2. 2
    Julian Ryerson
    Julian Ryerson
    BVB · 28
    13 Assists
  3. 3
    Luis Díaz
    Luis Díaz
    Bayern · 29
    11 Assists
  4. 4
    Farès Chaïbi
    Farès Chaïbi
    Eintracht · 23
    9 Assists
  5. 5
    Bazoumana Touré
    Bazoumana Touré
    Hoffenheim · 20
    8 Assists
# Player Club Assists
6 Christoph Baumgartner Leipzig 8
7 Andrej Ilic Union 8
8 Jamie Leweling Stuttgart 8
9 Vladimír Coufal Hoffenheim 7
10 Fisnik Asllani Hoffenheim 7

Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)

  1. 1
    Dominik Kohr
    Dominik Kohr
    Mainz · 32
    8 2
  2. 2
    Eric Martel
    Eric Martel
    Koeln · 23
    10 1
  3. 3
    Niklas Stark
    Niklas Stark
    Werder · 31
    6 2
  4. 4
    Marco Friedl
    Marco Friedl
    Werder · 28
    8 1
  5. 5
    Johan Manzambi
    Johan Manzambi
    Freiburg · 20
    4 2
# Player Club Y R Total
6 Moritz Jenz Wolfsburg 7 1 8
7 Rocco Reitz Gladbach 7 1 8
8 Nicolai Remberg HSV 10 0 10
9 Fábio Vieira HSV 3 2 5
10 Miro Muheim HSV 6 1 7

Statistical Splits BETA

What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 63 matches of the Kompany-Ära.

Split Group A Group B Δ ppg 95% CI p-value Significance
Home games vs. away games Home 2.22 ppg · n=32 Away 1.61 ppg · n=31 +0.61 [-0.03, 1.21] 0.06 🟡
Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league Vs top 6 1.26 ppg · n=19 Vs rest 2.21 ppg · n=44 -0.94 [-1.58, -0.26] 0.01 🟡
With vs. without Gregor Kobel in the starting XI With Gregor Kobel 1.93 ppg · n=61 Without Gregor Kobel 1.50 ppg · n=2 +0.43 [-1.28, 2.15] 0.51 ⬜
With vs. without Serhou Guirassy in the starting XI With Serhou Guirassy 1.79 ppg · n=52 Without Serhou Guirassy 2.54 ppg · n=11 -0.76 [-1.39, -0.03] 0.04 🟡
With vs. without Waldemar Anton in the starting XI With Waldemar Anton 2.08 ppg · n=49 Without Waldemar Anton 1.36 ppg · n=14 +0.72 [-0.05, 1.45] 0.07 🟡
With vs. without Julian Ryerson in the starting XI With Julian Ryerson 1.90 ppg · n=48 Without Julian Ryerson 2.00 ppg · n=15 -0.10 [-0.82, 0.63] 0.76 ⚪
With vs. without Nico Schlotterbeck in the starting XI With Nico Schlotterbeck 1.78 ppg · n=46 Without Nico Schlotterbeck 2.29 ppg · n=17 -0.51 [-1.15, 0.17] 0.13 🟡
Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week Heavy week 0.00 ppg · n=0 Normal week 1.92 ppg · n=63 -1.92 — — ⬜
After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before After UCL 0.00 ppg · n=0 No UCL 1.92 ppg · n=63 -1.92 — — ⬜
Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences 0 absences 1.55 ppg · n=20 2+ absences 1.73 ppg · n=15 -0.18 [-1.10, 0.73] 0.70 ⚪

Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested

ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.

Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered

Myth Check BETA

What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.

Indicative

"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"

Gegen Top 6: 1.263 ppg · gegen Rest: 2.205 ppg (Δ -0.942).

Prediction relevance: Top-6-Gegner haben keinen messbaren Sondereffekt.

Untested

"Midweek UCL games cost points"

Indikativ: Nach CL 0 ppg, ohne CL 1.921 ppg.

Prediction relevance: Kein klares Adjustment.

Indicative

"Home games are different"

Heim: 2.219 ppg · Auswärts: 1.613 ppg (Δ 0.606).

Prediction relevance: Heimvorteil ist nicht überdurchschnittlich.

Data Analysis

Auto-Generated Variante F · Spieltag 29

Last 5 form: BVB: WWWWL (12/15 pts). Best in league: Bayern (WDWWW, 13/15). Worst: Wolfsburg (LDLLL, 1/15).

This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.

What the data doesn't say

Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.

The Borussia Dortmund File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.

Frequently Asked

Where do BVB currently stand?
2th with 64 points after matchday 29 (19W 7D 3L, goal diff +31).
Who is BVB's next opponent?
Hoffenheim, kickoff on 2026-04-18.
Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
Harry Kane (Bayern) with 31 goals in the 25646 season.
Will BVB be relegated?
BVB are currently 39 points clear of the relegation places.
Will BVB be German champions?
Polymarket prices BVB's title probability at 0.4%.

Related

The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?