"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"
Gegen Top 6: 1.2 ppg · gegen Rest: 2.208 ppg (Δ -1.008).
Prediction relevance: Adjustment -33.6pp für Top-6-Gegner.
At a glance
BVB sit 2th after matchday 7 with 14 points (4W 2D 0L, goal diff +7). Last 5 form: WWWDD (11/15 pts).
Top Scorers
Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 28321
- 1
Patrik Schick6 Goals - 2
Niclas Füllkrug6 Goals - 3
Michael Olise5 Goals - 4
Younes Ebnoutalib5 Goals - 5
Phillip Tietz5 Goals
| # | Player | Club | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Harry Kane | Bayern | 4 |
| 7 | Christopher Nkunku | Leipzig | 4 |
| 8 | Luis Díaz | Bayern | 4 |
| 9 | Michael Gregoritsch | Augsburg | 4 |
| 10 | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 4 |
Form & Momentum
BVB — Form & Home/Away
Last 5
WWWDD
Home
7 Pts
Away
7 Pts
Last result: Draw. Last 5 form: W-W-W-D-D.
The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).
Assists & Card Ranking
Bundesliga Top Assists
- 1
Marco Grüll5 Assists - 2
Harry Kane5 Assists - 3
Antonio Nusa3 Assists - 4
Joshua Kimmich3 Assists - 5
Lukas Ullrich3 Assists
| # | Player | Club | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fabian Rieder | Augsburg | 3 |
| 7 | Sheraldo Becker | Mainz | 3 |
| 8 | Derry Scherhant | Freiburg | 3 |
| 9 | Matthias Ginter | Freiburg | 3 |
| 10 | Miguel Gutiérrez | Leverkusen | 3 |
Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)
- 1
Yuito Suzuki2 1 - 2
Bernardo1 1 - 3
Tim Kleindienst1 1 - 4
Raphael Onyedika4 0 - 5 Ron Schallenberg0 1
| # | Player | Club | Y | R | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Samuele Inácio | BVB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Shuto Machino | Gladbach | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Felix Keidel | Elversberg | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Kevin Diks | Gladbach | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Wouter Burger | Hoffenheim | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Statistical Splits BETA
What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 68 matches of the Kompany-Ära.
| Split | Group A | Group B | Δ ppg | 95% CI | p-value | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home games vs. away games | Home | Away | +0.71 | [0.09, 1.29] | 0.02 | 🟢 |
| Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league | Vs top 6 | Vs rest | -1.01 | [-1.63, -0.37] | 0.00 | 🟢 |
| With vs. without Gregor Kobel in the starting XI | With Gregor Kobel | Without Gregor Kobel | +0.42 | [-1.27, 2.14] | 0.49 | ⬜ |
| With vs. without Serhou Guirassy in the starting XI | With Serhou Guirassy | Without Serhou Guirassy | -0.51 | [-1.21, 0.28] | 0.19 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Waldemar Anton in the starting XI | With Waldemar Anton | Without Waldemar Anton | +0.70 | [-0.07, 1.43] | 0.08 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Julian Ryerson in the starting XI | With Julian Ryerson | Without Julian Ryerson | -0.11 | [-0.83, 0.64] | 0.75 | ⚪ |
| With vs. without Nico Schlotterbeck in the starting XI | With Nico Schlotterbeck | Without Nico Schlotterbeck | -0.51 | [-1.14, 0.18] | 0.14 | 🟡 |
| Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week | Heavy week | Normal week | -1.91 | — | — | ⬜ |
| After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before | After UCL | No UCL | -1.91 | — | — | ⬜ |
| Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences | 0 absences | 2+ absences | -0.07 | [-0.96, 0.82] | 0.90 | ⚪ |
Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested
ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.
Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered
Myth Check BETA
What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.
"Midweek UCL games cost points"
Indikativ: Nach CL 0 ppg, ohne CL 1.912 ppg.
Prediction relevance: Kein klares Adjustment.
"Home games are different"
Heim: 2.265 ppg · Auswärts: 1.559 ppg (Δ 0.706).
Prediction relevance: Adjustment 23.53pp für Heimspiele.
Data Analysis
Matchday 7 of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season: Bayern top the table with 14 points. BVB (2th, 14 pts). Top scorer: Patrik Schick (6).
This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.
What the data doesn't say
Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.
The Borussia Dortmund File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.
Frequently Asked
- Where do BVB currently stand?
- 2th with 14 points after matchday 7 (4W 2D 0L, goal diff +7).
- Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
- Patrik Schick (Leverkusen) with 6 goals in the 28321 season.
- Will BVB be relegated?
- BVB are currently 9 points clear of the relegation places.
Related
The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?
- Predictions & Forecasts — title probability, transfers, schedule strength
- The Borussia Dortmund File — history, scandals, triumphs