The Borussia Dortmund Files
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Predictions

Borussia Dortmund

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
BVB vs SC Paderborn
Kickoff
Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Oracle
76.8% / 13.6% / 9.6%
Akte BVB — Club-Dossier Borussia Dortmund
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is BVB's win probability against SC Paderborn?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 76.8% win probability for BVB (home).
Where does BVB stand in the table?
BVB are 3th with 6 points after 2 matchdays. Goal difference: +3.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does BVB's probability come from — and what moves it?

BVB vs SC Paderborn · Sat, 09/12, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home73.5%
Draw24%
Away2.5%

BVB: 73.5%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • 🟢 BVB home +17.3pp
Home85.1%
Draw14.4%
Away0.5%

BVB: 85.1% (+17.3pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home76.8%
Draw13.6%
Away9.6%

BVB: 76.8%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: +8.3pp — Pipeline model sees BVB stronger than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 9 Sept, 12:00

BVB vs SC Paderborn Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
BVB 76.8% 1.25
Draw 13.6% 7.08
SC Paderborn 9.6% 9.99
Spread BVB -1.75 @ 1.85
Total O/U 3.5 @ 1.90 / 1.97
Margin: 4.13%
Stuttgart vs BVB Sat 19 Sept, 16:30
Stuttgart 41.5% 2.29
Draw 25.8% 3.69
BVB 32.7% 2.91
Spread BVB +0.25 @ 1.85
Total O/U 3.5 @ 1.91 / 1.93
Margin: 5.13%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for Borussia Dortmund. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 2

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Augsburg 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 BVB 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +5 4
6 Bayern 2 1 1 0 +4 4
7 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 +3 3
8 Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Werder 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Koeln 2 1 0 1 -2 3
12 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Eintracht 2 0 1 1 -3 1
14 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 -3 1
15 Union 2 0 1 1 -4 1
16 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Gladbach 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 HSV 2 0 0 2 -7 0