The Borussia Dortmund Files
DE
Predictions

Borussia Dortmund

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
Werder vs BVB
Kickoff
Sat 16 May, 13:30
Oracle
27.5% / 24.0% / 48.5%
Akte BVB — Club-Dossier Borussia Dortmund
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is BVB's win probability against Werder?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 48.5% win probability for BVB (away).
Where does BVB stand in the table?
BVB are 2th with 70 points after 33 matchdays. Goal difference: +34.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does BVB's probability come from — and what moves it?

Werder vs BVB · Sat, 05/16, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home21.6%
Draw24%
Away54.4%

BVB: 54.4%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • 🟢 BVB away -19.2pp
Home31.2%
Draw33.6%
Away35.2%

BVB: 35.2% (-19.2pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home27.5%
Draw24%
Away48.5%

BVB: 48.5%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -13.3pp — Pipeline model sees BVB weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 13 May, 18:00

Werder vs BVB Sat 16 May, 13:30
Werder 27.5% 3.45
Draw 24.0% 3.96
BVB 48.5% 1.96
Spread BVB -0.5 @ 1.97
Total O/U 3.25 @ 1.84 / 2.00
Margin: 5.26%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for Borussia Dortmund. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 33

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern 33 27 5 1 +82 86
2 BVB 33 21 7 5 +34 70
3 Leipzig 33 20 5 8 +22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 +22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 +17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 +21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 -9 44
8 Eintracht 33 11 10 12 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 -11 37
11 HSV 33 9 10 14 -14 37
12 Union 33 9 9 15 -18 36
13 Gladbach 33 8 11 14 -15 35
14 Koeln 33 7 11 15 -10 32
15 Werder 33 8 8 17 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 -29 26
18 St. Pauli 33 6 8 19 -29 26